Key takeaways
- Central banks set interest rates in response to inflation and jobs data, so those releases move markets.
- Price reacts to the difference between the actual figure and the forecast, not the figure on its own.
- US CPI and the jobs report usually land at 13:30 UK time; FOMC decisions usually at 19:00 UK; Bank of England decisions at 12:00.
- Spreads widen and price can jump through stops around releases, so plan whether you are flat or trading it in advance.
Why economic data matters
Central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England adjust interest rates to keep inflation under control without crushing growth. Every major data release changes what traders expect those central banks to do next. Change the expected path of interest rates and you change bond yields, currencies, and the value of everything priced off them, including stock indices like the Nasdaq.
The number that matters is the surprise
Before each release, economists publish forecasts. The average is the consensus. If the actual figure matches it, the market has usually priced it in. If it's well above or below, price reprices quickly, often within seconds. Always read a release as "actual versus forecast", and remember that revisions to the previous figure can matter too.
The releases worth knowing first
| Release | What it measures | When (UK time, usually) |
|---|---|---|
| US CPI | Consumer price inflation | Monthly, 13:30 |
| US non-farm payrolls (NFP) | Jobs added, unemployment, wages | Usually the first Friday of the month, 13:30 |
| FOMC rate decision | US interest rates and guidance | Eight meetings a year, 19:00, press conference 19:30 |
| Bank of England decision | UK interest rates | Eight meetings a year, 12:00 |
| UK CPI | UK consumer price inflation | Monthly, 07:00 |
US releases are scheduled in New York time. For a few weeks each spring and autumn the UK and US change their clocks on different dates, and those releases arrive an hour earlier in UK time. Always check the calendar for the week.
How a surprise flows through markets
Say US inflation comes in hotter than expected. Traders price in higher interest rates for longer. Bond yields rise, the dollar tends to strengthen, and growth-heavy indices like the Nasdaq often fall because their future earnings are worth less at higher rates. A cooler figure tends to do the opposite. It isn't guaranteed every time, which is why you combine this with what price is actually doing.
Risk-on and risk-off
When investors feel confident they buy riskier assets like stocks; that's "risk-on". When they're nervous they move into perceived safe havens such as government bonds, the US dollar, the Japanese yen or gold; that's "risk-off". Big data surprises and geopolitical shocks can flip the mood in a day.
How to use an economic calendar
- On Sunday, list the high-impact releases for your market for the week.
- Note the time in UK hours and the consensus forecast for each.
- Decide in advance: flat into the release, or trading it with a tested plan.
- If you're flat, wait for the first reaction to settle before looking for setups.
This is how GRIT's macro module is taught, and members get a weekly macro outlook covering the week ahead. See fundamental vs technical analysis for how this fits with chart work.
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Quick answers
What time is US CPI released in the UK?
US CPI is released at 8:30am New York time, which is usually 13:30 UK time. For a few weeks around the clock changes in spring and autumn it can be 12:30 UK time, so check the calendar.
What does consensus mean in economic data?
It's the average forecast from economists before a release. Markets compare the actual figure with the consensus, and the size of the surprise largely decides how much price moves.
Should beginners trade the news?
Most beginners are better off being flat into high-impact releases. Spreads widen, price can jump past stop losses and the first move often reverses. Learn how releases affect your market first.
Education only. This guide is general education, not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Trading carries a high risk of losing money and most retail traders lose money. Examples are illustrations, not trade ideas.